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Gartner also predicts that by 2021 90 percent of enterprise blockchain implementations will need to be replaced within 18 months to avoid obsolescence.
Blockchain still isn’t well understood and often under delivers to people’s expectations of the technology.
Adrian Lee, senior research director at Gartner, said that “blockchain platforms are emerging platforms and, at this point, nearly indistinguishable in some cases from core blockchain technology. Many CIOs overestimate the capabilities and short-term benefits of blockchain as a technology to help them achieve their business goals, thus creating unrealistic expectations when assessing offerings from blockchain platform vendors and service providers.”
Despite that, the long term upside to blockchain is potentially huge. Gartner expects the technology to grow from $176 billion in 2025 to more than $3.1 trillion by 2030. Lee said that “product managers should prepare for rapid evolution, early obsolescence, a shifting competitive landscape, future consolidation of offerings and the potential failure of early stage technologies/functionality in the blockchain platform market.”