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Cloud Computing: How Long Can the Hype Continue?
Much of the talk at the start of a new year focuses on trends expected to happen during the upcoming 12 months. But let’s consider what’s happened over the last 12 months in the cloud computing landscape.
There were definitely big predictions for cloud computing coming into the year. Going into 2011, Forrester ranked Cloud Computing as one of the top five ‘high-impact’ technologies for the year. And Gartner similarly ranked cloud computing as the expected number one top strategic technology for 2011. Forrester considers cloud computing to include any IT technology that is an operational expenditure rather than a capital expenditure.
In April 2011, Forrester predicted global cloud computing to reach $40.7 billion by the end of 2011, and to ultimately grow to $241 billion by 2020. IDC, using a more restrictive definition of what cloud computing is, estimated significantly lower numbers, with cloud computing growing rapidly at an annual compound growth rate of 22.4%, reaching $3.6 billion by 2015.
In September 2011, a KPGM survey and a second survey by Symantec both found similar results. About 10 percent of those surveyed had no interest in the cloud, 20 percent were currently evaluating the cloud, 50 percent had partial cloud implementations or pilots, and 20 percent considered themselves to be full cloud computing adopters.
Tudor Aw of KPGM, said that “Cloud adoption is quickly shifting from a competitive advantage to an operational necessity, enabling innovation that can create new business models and will impact the long-term growth opportunities and competitiveness of businesses.”
For 2012, Forrester still has the cloud listed among the top four technology trends, although they expect the hype to begin to die down. The cloud also remains in Gartner’s top ten strategic technologies for 2012.
But is Cloud Computing living up to the hype? Early indications are that it is.
At the start of 2012, a new Information Age survey found that 49 percent of organisations have adopted some form of SaaS, and 14% expect to sign onto SaaS later in the year. 31.5 percent are using IaaS or PaaS technologies with 17.5 percent expecting to start using them later in the year. And 35.5 percent of organizations are using private clouds with 23.5 percent expecting to do so in 2012.
A survey of CIO’s in the UK asked what technologies most positively affected them in 2011. More than 70 percent of the respondents ranked cloud computing and virtualization technologies at the top of their lists, while only 13 percent ranked mobile technology. And when only smaller companies, those with 1000 to 3000 employees, were considered, 76 percent ranked cloud computing the highest.
John Thornhill, CEO of the company which sponsored the survey, commented that “The industry has been talking about cloud computing for a number of years – and it’s become a business, rather than just a technology term – but companies are now using it in earnest.”
