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Computing: The End of Moore’s Law Ultimately Means Higher Costs for IT
Moore’s Law said that computing power will double about every two years. Seems simple enough, but it has proved correct and over the last fifty years since the prediction was made, there have been stunning advances in computing and associated technologies.
But it looks now like the prediction may falter, at least in the near term. Optical circuits and other quantum computing are two new technologies that may enable computing speeds to increase, but those technologies haven’t been developed to the point to be used widely.
Urs Hölzle, employee 8 from Google, recently said that “Moore’s Law is slowing down for a number of reasons. That is a big problem for us internally, but it’s a much bigger problem for the IT space overall.” IT departments have become used to adding more powerful hardware to keep pace with their growing need to acquire, store and analyze data. But if Moore’s law can’t keep up with that, IT departments will ultimately have higher costs.
Hölzle said that “Infrastructure is one of those things, if you do it right, nobody cares about it. But getting it right, as the significance of Moore’s Law fades, will be increasingly a challenge.”
Stefan Dyckerhoff, CEO at SiFive, wrote that “the end of Moore’s Law has another detrimental effect on the industry: As the costs required to bring new designs to market rise exponentially, it has become nearly impossible for smaller system designers and innovators to get the attention of the shrinking number of semiconductor companies capable of providing modern, high-performance chips.”
