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Artificial Intelligence: Will Breakneck Growth Lead to Disillusionment?
The recent AI Index Report for 2018 comprehensively documents the rapid speed that AI is developing. In some areas, like machine vision and human language, algorithms and processing times have improved by a factor of more than 16 just over the last year and one half.
The report finds that there are three centers of AI research today: Europe, China and the US. Europe actually dominates the number of published AI research papers with the US in third place, trailing China. Papers in China are dominated by those from government agencies while research in the US is instead dominated by the top technology companies, like Google, Facebook, Microsoft and Amazon.
AI research in China focuses on agricultural science, engineering and technology. Research in the US and Europe tends to focus more on humanities and health research.
The report analyzed the language used during earnings reports and found that mentions of technologies like “Big Data” and “Cloud”, while still are happening, have declined dramatically while the terms “Artificial Intelligence” and “Machine Learning” have dramatically increased.
Similarly, in US Congress debate and records, beginning around 2015, the use of the terms “Artificial Intelligence” and “Machine Learning” have skyrocketed.
In general, the report was positive. But some like Michael Wooldridge, computer science professor at Oxford University, think otherwise. He said that “There is, clearly, an AI bubble at present; the question that this report raises for me is whether this bubble will burst (cf. the dot com boom of 1996–2001), or gently deflate; and when this happens, what will be left behind? My great fear is that we will see another AI winter, prompted by disillusion following the massive speculative investment that we are witnessing right now.”
