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Mobile: Mobile Computing to Rule the Next Decade
Mobile data traffic will grow at a annual rate of 78 percent through 2016 by an estimate in Cisco’s annual Visual Networking Index. Compouned, that amounts to a factor of 18 increase of traffic from 2011 to 2016. The report predicts that by 2016 there will be 10 billion mobile devices, more than one device per person on the earth, and all of those devices will generate 10.8 exebytes of mobile data traffic monthly, the equivalent of streaming 33 billion DVD’s or 4.3 quadrillion MP3 files annually.
Mobile devices are driving this surge in network traffic. Suraj Shetty, Vice President of service-provider marketing at Cisco, said that “Mobile data traffic will continue to explode. This is a trend we don’t see slowing down.”
Mobile data traffic in 2011 increased 2.3 times the previous year and the fourth year in a row where the data more than doubled. 2011’s mobile data traffic was 597 petabytes, eight times the size of the entire Internet traffic in 2000 of 75 petabytes.
The Cisco report also predicts that
- Smartphone traffic will grow by a factor of 50 between now and 2016
- The network traffic from tablets alone will grow more than 62 times between now and 2016
- Mobile video will take up 71 percent of 2016 mobile data traffic
- Service providers will increasingly look to offload mobile Internet traffic to fixed or Wi/Fi networks
- There will be 5 billion tablet devices by 2016
- Each mobile user will consume more than a giagbyte of mobile data each month in 2016, compared to .5 percent who did so in 2011
The predicted increase in network traffic won’t come without pain though. Mary Brown, director of government affairs for Cisco, told Reuters that “We are going to start to see quality-of-service issues arising in major metropolitan areas if we don’t act to add more spectrum to these mobile networks”
