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Rare Earth Elements: Shortages Likely in the Coming Decade
17 rare earth elements are used in the production of high-tech devices, including consumer electronics like cell phones, autonomous vehicles, and defense equipment like radar systems and guided missiles. The production of rare earth elements is currently dominated by the China which accounts for about two-thirds of global production while the US produces about 12 percent of the global supply and needs to import nearly 80 percent of rare earth metals from China.
In 2001 the US needed to import about 23 percent of it’s oil from the Middle East, so compared to oil, the US is significantly more dependent on rare earth elements. In January of this year China introduced a bill that would require more stringent tracking of the import and export of rare earth elements and would limit the export of minerals that could be used for military purposes.
A report by Adamas Intelligence found that the market for rare earth oxides is expected to increase five-fold by 2030 and that there will be tens of tons of shortages of rare earth compounds like NdFeB and NdPr by 2030.
The dependence of the US on China for these materials can be worrying. It will take a great deal of time to change supply chains and to grow greater self-sufficiency.
Lewis Black, CEO of Almonty Industries, said that “you’re ten years away from even coming close to having a fully diversified supply chain. To open a mine is not like building a factory. To open a mine can take three to four years of planning, then permits for two years and another three years if everything goes smoothly, which it rarely does, then two years to build. You’ve already spent eight years before you’ve even started production.”
