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Technology: Smart Machines Expected to Disrupt and Transform
Will a machine be doing your job in the near future? When Gartner asked CEOs how likely a scenario it is for machines to begin rapidly replacing middle-class jobs within the next decade, 60 percent of them said that it was just a “futurist fantasy.” But Gartner thinks that they’re wrong. In fact, Gartner says that it’s likely for millions of middle-class jobs to be replaced by smart machines in the relatively near future.
Kenneth Brant, research director at Gartner, said that “most business and thought leaders underestimate the potential of smart machines to take over millions of middle-class jobs in the coming decades. Job destruction will happen at a faster pace, with machine-driven job elimination overwhelming the market’s ability to create valuable new ones… The bottom line is that many CEOs are missing what could quickly develop to be the most significant technology shift of this decade.”
Brant said that “In fact, even today, there is already a multifaceted marketplace for engineering a ‘digital workforce,’ backed by major players on both the supply and demand side. This marketplace comprises intelligent agents, virtual reality assistants, expert systems and embedded software to make traditional machines ‘smart’ in a very specialized way, plus a new generation of low-cost and easy-to-train robots and purpose-built automated machines that could significantly devalue and/or displace millions of humans in the workforce.”
The Gartner report predicts the following:
- By 2017, smart machines and virtual personal assistants will grow rapidly, faster than iPad usage did from 2010 to 2011.
- By 2020, there will be a proliferation of machine-based intelligent personal assistants and smart advisors.
- By 2020, a majority of knowledge worker career paths will have been influenced or disrupted by smart machines.
- By 2024, 10 percent of all potentially dangerous human activities will require the use of a non-overideable “smart system”.
Gartner expects smart machines to totally disrupt the workplace that we now know.
