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In 2016, banks like Deutsche forecast that the widespread use of blockchain technology was five to ten years away. Three years later, that goal hasn’t seemed to move much closer.
In 4Q 2019, Gartner announced that disillusionment for blockchain was rampant and that it would be at least five to ten more years before it will be more widely deployed.
The reason for the delay? The technology just isn’t there yet. It’s not mature enough yet. And the second reason is that people have tried to throw blockchain at everything with a focus on the technology and not whether it is a good fit for the problem.
Avivah Litan, Gartner analyst, said that “Blockchain technologies have not yet lived up to the hype, and most enterprise blockchain projects are stuck in experimentation mode. Blockchain is not yet enabling a digital business revolution across business ecosystems and may not until at least 2028 when Gartner expects blockchain to become fully scalable technically and operationally.”
Martin Walker, director for banking and finance at the Center for Evidence-Based Management, who has called blockchain a ‘pixie-dust fad’, told the Financial Times that “the hype of the last few years, followed by the disappointment that many people are feeling now, is evidence that you need to understand the problems that need to be solved and then look for an answer, rather than throwing a technology at business problems before you’ve understood them.”