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Open Source: Growth — But not so Fast

By Dick Weisinger

Gartner has forecast that the size of the Open Source database market will top $1 billion by 2013.  While everyone agrees that Open Source is making a big impact on the market, Rodriguez and Urlocker at InfoWorld dispute the speed that Gartner is predicting.  Their back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that growth is probably about half of Gartner’s forecast.

The InfoWorld article looks to Red Hat as an indicator of how red-hot Open Source companies have fared in the past. Gartner is predicting that Open Source database software can achieve a 40 percent annual growth rate over the next five years — that’s just about the rate at which Red Hat managed to grow from 2004-2008, but to match Red Hat will be tough.  While MySQL is on target to meet that rate of growth, other OS databases, like EnterpriseDB and Ingres, will probably not be able to sustain that level of growth.  InfoWorld instead says that OS databases in 2013 will be closer to a $600 million industry.

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