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Big Data: Federal Agencies turn to “Anticipatory Intelligence”
Government intelligence agencies are experimenting with foreseeing problems and crimes before they happen by using predictive analytics. This application of big data and analytics is being called “anticipatory intelligence” and is the main focus of a newly launched department within the CIA called the Directorate in Digital Innovation (DDI).
Collin Agee, U.S. Army senior adviser for Intelligence Community engagement, described the idea behind anticipatory intelligence. “Predictive intelligence is deterministic—‘Are the Soviets going to attack?’ Anticipatory is when you don’t know what the end game is. It’s more cognitive and more sophisticated. It’s things that are unpredictable but can have catastrophic events. How silly does it sound to say people are going to fly planes into skyscrapers?”
Andrew Hallman, deputy director of the CIA for Digital Innovation, said that “our responsibility here is to nourish and develop that digital bloodstream in which we execute the mission… In the future, we would like to ensure that our operations are so digitally enabled that [digitization] is just part of the fabric of how we do espionage and the conduct of intelligence. There is a graveyard of innovation attempts and efforts because they have been treated in the past as separate and distinct innovation activities—the ‘othering’ of innovation. We have to spur and cultivate the organic innovation that happens naturally in many of the mission components. Our job in the DDI is not only to help create those conditions so operators and analysts can innovate at the local level, but also to find ways to scale that [innovation] from where it naturally occurs.”
